Economy. Political. Business

Based; Johannesburg

Frans Cronje is an analyst. He was educated at St John’s College in Houghton and holds a PhD in scenario planning. He has published three books on South Africa’s future and authored scores of policy assessments, briefings, reports, and forecasts on the country. His third book, the Rise or Fall of South Africa, will be released on Amazon  in April of 2020. He directs the Centre for Risk Analysis  – a Johannesburg based strategic intelligence think-tank that has advised a great number of corporations and government agencies around the world on South Africa’s long term economic, social, political, and policy. He teaches scenario based strategy at a South African business school.

The Rise or Fall of South Africa is Frans Cronje’s third book and was published at the end of April of 2020.

The book develops a brand new set of scenarios to demonstrate how the world and South Africa will change into the 2030s and beyond. On South Africa it argues that the country is at the verge of a political and economic realignment on par with what it experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. The present Covid-19 pandemic is likely to accelerate that realignment and within a decade South Africa’s political, economic, and social standing may be unrecognisable from what it is today. Since the publication of the first book in the series a growing number of South African firms and individuals have begun to look beyond the country’s borders to opportunities and futures in the rest of the world. The Rise and Fall of South Africa has followed  them and focuses much analysis on how global balances of power and economic and technological trends will unfold and what the implications for South Africa’s rapidly expanding corporate and family diaspora will be. The election prospects of Donald Trump, the future of Europe after Brexit, the outlook for the Middle East, the rise of India, and the prospects for China’s long term political and economic development are all covered. In its latter chapters the book offers advice on how firms, families, and the South African government should position themselves to avoid short-term economic and political risks and take advantage of the global and South African opportunities that will present themselves over the longer term.